Climate Change Could Nearly Triple Europe's Wildfire Burned Area by Century's End

A Potsdam Institute study projects Europe's annual wildfire footprint could nearly triple under a high-emissions scenario, but better fire management could cut losses sharply.

Wildfires could burn through nearly three times as much of Europe each year by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published Thursday in Global Change Biology.

Researchers project that annual burned area across the continent could rise by about 39% under a low-emissions scenario and by roughly 192% during 2070–2100 compared with the 2000–2030 average, as climate change delivers hotter, drier, and windier fire conditions.

"Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe," said Maik Billing, a PIK researcher and the study's lead author.

The findings arrive amid another punishing fire season. Around 550,000 hectares had already burned across the European Union as of mid-August — roughly 2.5 times the 20-year average — and France has logged record-breaking fires.

The outlook isn't purely bleak. The study found improved fire prevention, early detection, and firefighting could reduce burned areas by 92% under 1.8°C of warming and by 72% even under roughly 3.6°C of warming, though the authors caution those gains may prove optimistic in a much hotter climate.

Sources: Anadolu Agency | The Guardian | Straits Times